Political Trading and Polls

For a long time, Tippie School of Business' Iowa Electronic Markets, in which students, faculty, and in some instances, outsiders of the academic realm, can trade with money and it is a predictor of political election outcomes.

As of Friday, it looks as though the Republicans will lose control of the House. Here's the graphic:



Since the Senate graphic wasn't as up to date, I will post it on Tuesday when it will be, but as of last Wednesday, it predicts the Republicans will hold there, but there will be some losses. My sense is that while Iraq is the main issue, the House flip indicates more of a move towards the middle in how we spend our money; too much on Iraq, junk spending at home, and too many tax cuts for the top 1%.

Another place I watch is Tradesports. If you look at today's bets on the Senate races, you see Claire McCaskill ahead in Missouri and sadly, Joe Lieberman in CT also ahead.

I am pointing these out because they mirror what is happening in the MSNBC polls released this morning.

Tags: Iowa Electronic Markets, political economy, 2006 Congressional Races, MSNBC polls, benny's world